Understanding basic prediction market (forecast market) terminology makes reading any market easier. This glossary explains the ten most important terms in plain language, from Yes/No contracts to settlement and liquidity.
The basic trading unit: an amount you put on one side of the market (Yes or No). The displayed percentage reflects how the money is split between the two sides, i.e. the implied probability. At settlement, those who were right get their stakes back in full and split the losing pot after a 10% commission on it.
The probability reflected by the current split of money between the two sides. If 65% of the money sits on "Yes", the market estimates the "Yes" probability at roughly 65%.
The moment a market's outcome is finally determined per a pre-announced official source. A 10% commission is then taken from the losing pot only, and the winners get their stakes back in full and split the rest in proportion to their stakes.
How much money sits in a market's pools. In a larger pool, one more stake barely moves the displayed probability. More popular markets usually have larger pools.
The pre-announced entity or reference the outcome is settled against — like an official sports tournament source or a published financial index.
The basic trading unit: an amount you put on the Yes or No side. If you are right you get your stake back in full plus your share of the losing pot; if you are wrong you lose what you put in.
The probability reflected by the current split of money — if 40% of the money is on an outcome, that implies a 40% probability.
It settles automatically per a pre-announced official source decided before the market opens, with no later discretionary decision.
High liquidity means large pools, so one more stake barely moves the probability; low liquidity means small pools, where a single stake can shift it noticeably.
No, there's no leverage on PolySouq — the maximum loss is capped at the contract cost only.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.