A good forecast in prediction markets starts from a data source, not an opinion. Sources fall into six categories: official (the bodies that publish the data), market (prices and volumes), credible media, historical, event calendars, and the market price itself.
The golden rule: the source that settles the market matters more than any analysis. Here we cover each category and how to turn it into a probability number you can compare against the price. Practise free on PolySouq with 10,000 coins on sign-up.
Before hunting for any data, read the market's settlement rule and identify the body that will officially announce the result. If a market settles on the Brent close on a specific date, your first source is exactly that reference price — not an average of analyst forecasts.
This mistake costs beginners dearly: they gather excellent data about a question slightly different from the one being asked. Read how markets settle transparently before any analysis.
Prices of related assets carry information ahead of you. If you are forecasting an oil price range at month end, the forward curve and recent volatility give you a plausible range faster than any analysis article.
Within prediction markets specifically, check volume and depth of liquidity before trusting a price: a price set on thin volume may reflect two traders' views rather than the market's. Full explanation in liquidity and volume in prediction markets.
Before any complex analysis, ask: how often has a similar event occurred in the past? If the company beat earnings estimates in 14 of the last 20 quarters, your starting point is 70%, not 50%. This is the base rate, and it is the most powerful free tool you have.
The common error is jumping straight to today's news and ignoring the historical record, which leaves your estimate anchored to the last headline you read. Always start from the base rate, then adjust for genuinely new information.
Timing is half the analysis. Knowing that an inflation print lands in three days, and that a producers' meeting falls a week before settlement, changes your decision entirely — because you know when the price is likely to move.
Build a simple calendar for each market you follow: the settlement date, and the dates of influential data releases before it. Details in how economic data moves prediction markets.
News is a source of speed, not of truth. Use it to discover that something has changed, then go straight back to the official source to verify the number before building a decision on it.
The two conditions: know who published it first, and separate facts from opinions. A headline like "analysts expect a rise" is not new information — it is an opinion that has usually been priced in for hours.
The best way to test your sources is to actually use them and watch the result. Sign up free on PolySouq and 10,000 PolySouq coins arrive automatically, so you trade forecasts with zero risk to your own money and compete on the leaderboard. For which indicators are worth following, see analysis tools and indicators.
Six categories: official sources (statistics offices, central banks, exchanges), market data (prices and volumes), historical data, event calendars, credible media, and the prediction-market price itself.
Start from the settlement rule: which body announces the result and exactly which reference number. Then gather the historical base rate for similar events and the schedule of data releases before settlement.
No. News is a source of speed, not truth — use it to discover that something changed, then verify the number at the official source before building any decision on it.
It is how often a similar event has historically occurred, used as the anchor for your estimate before adding new information. Ignoring it leaves your estimate hostage to the last headline you read.
Usually not. Most high-value sources are free and official: statistics bulletins, central bank data, exchange disclosures and periodic energy reports.
Look at volume and depth of liquidity. A price built on thin volume reflects a handful of traders, while a high-volume price aggregates the information of many participants.
Twenty structured minutes beat two scattered hours: five minutes on the settlement rule, ten on the base rate and official data, five comparing your number to the market price.
On PolySouq, free — signing up is free and 10,000 PolySouq coins arrive automatically so you can trade with zero financial risk and compare results on the leaderboard.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.