"How much can I earn?" is the most searched question about prediction markets, and the worst possible answer is a number. The honest answer is that nobody can promise you a profit, and that trading on PolySouq with real money in USDC can end with the loss of the whole amount you place in any market. What can be calculated exactly is: the hit rate you need just to break even at each price level, the effect of the 10% commission on the losing pool, what having an "edge" means measured against the crowd, and how position size decides whether you survive a losing streak. This guide gives you those tools with worked numbers, and shows why lasting profit needs a genuine edge over the crowd's view, not luck alone. Every figure below is an illustrative arithmetic example, not a forecast.
You will not find a line like "earn X per month" in this guide. The reason is simple: PolySouq provides markets in which participants trade against each other in a shared pool. What one person wins is what another loses, after commission. Nobody guarantees you a return, the platform does not publish an average user profit, and we will not publish a figure we cannot verify. Anyone who promises steady profits in markets built on uncertain events either does not understand the mechanics or is not telling you the truth.
What we can do is give you the arithmetic: what has to happen for you to break even, and what has to happen for you to profit. That is worth more to you than any number.
The equation that ties them together: your expected profit per dollar = hit rate × payout multiple − 1. If the result is positive you are trading with an edge; if it is negative you are paying for luck.
If the payout multiple is m, break-even happens at a hit rate of 1 ÷ m. Example: a multiple of 1.60 requires you to be right more than 62.5% of the time; a multiple of 2.35 requires only more than 42.6%. The table below shows the break-even threshold for a side holding a given share of the money in the market, after the 10% commission (ignoring the effect of your own stake on the pool):
How to read the table: the break-even threshold is always slightly above your side's share of the money (a 60% share needs a 62.5% hit rate), and the gap is the effect of the commission. So simply following the crowd does not win: if you back the side holding 60% of the money and it really does happen 60% of the time, you lose slowly after commission. Lasting profit requires being more accurate than the crowd, not agreeing with it.
A market with YES at 600 and NO at 400 (60% and 40%). You are considering 100 USDC on YES. The estimate counts your stake inside the pool, making it 700, so your estimated return if YES wins is 400 × 0.90 × (100 ÷ 700) = 51.42 profit, or 151.42 USDC at a multiple of about 1.51. Now the question: what do you actually believe the chance of YES to be?
The lesson: when you agree with the crowd (60%), the trade has negative expected value after commission even though you are "right about the direction". It turns positive only when your information says the true probability is clearly higher than your side's share of the money. Note also that positive expected value is not a guaranteed profit on a single trade: at 70% you will lose 3 of every 10 trades on average. It shows up over a large number of trades, not in one. For more, read our guide to expected value (EV) in prediction markets.
Suppose you make 20 trades of 25 USDC each (500 USDC in total) and the average payout multiple on your winning trades is 1.80. The break-even threshold is 1 ÷ 1.80 = 55.6%. Expected results by hit rate:
This tells you two things. First, the margin is thin: the gap between losing 50 and winning 40 is only 10 percentage points of accuracy. Second, even an excellent hit rate does not produce fast wealth, because returns in markets priced on reasonable probabilities come from many small trades. Any figure much larger than these should make you suspicious.
Even with a 60% hit rate, the chance of losing four trades in a row in any given run of four is 0.4 to the power of 4 = 2.56%. Across dozens of trades, streaks like that show up at some point. They are not a sign that your analysis is broken; they are the nature of the distribution. What separates the trader who stays from the one who leaves is position size:
A common capital-management rule is to keep the amount in any single trade to a small share (often between 1% and 5%) of the balance set aside for trading. It is a general educational rule, not personal advice. What matters is that you set your percentage before you begin, not after the first loss. For more detail, see risk and capital management.
There is no free balance on signup and no demo account, so every amount you place is real money. Tracking your true return should include the network fees you paid when sending.
Trading on PolySouq uses real money in USDC, and you can lose the entire amount you place in any market. There is no guaranteed profit, no demo account and no free balance. The payout shown before settlement is an estimate that changes. PolySouq claims no licence or approval from any regulatory body, so check your country's rules before you begin, and only put in what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not investment advice, and every figure in it is an arithmetic example, not a forecast.
Some traders profit and others lose, and nobody can guarantee you a profit. In a shared pool what one person wins is what another loses, after a 10% commission on the losing pool. Lasting profit requires being more accurate than the crowd's view. You can also lose the whole amount you place in any market.
Break-even hit rate = 1 ÷ payout multiple. At a multiple of 1.60 you need more than 62.5%; at 2.35 you need more than 42.6%. It is always slightly above your side's share of the money because of the 10% commission on the losing pool.
Because commission is taken from winners' profit, the expected return for someone who agrees with the crowd is slightly negative. An edge only exists if your information is more accurate than the crowd's estimate.
A common rule is a small share of the balance you have set aside for trading (often between 1% and 5%), so that a losing streak does not end your account. That is an educational principle rather than personal advice, and your decision should depend on what you can afford to lose.
No. We do not publish a figure we cannot verify and we do not promise returns. The numbers in this guide are illustrative arithmetic.
There is no entry fee on a trade. The commission is 10% of the losing pool only. The minimum deposit is 10 dollars and the minimum withdrawal is 5 dollars. Network fees when sending a deposit are paid by you from your wallet.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.