The most important decision in a trade is not Yes or No but how much you stake. In prediction markets (forecasting markets) on PolySouq you can lose the full amount in any market, so it helps to fix your position size with a written rule before you see the price. This guide explains the fixed-fraction rule, what a losing streak does to a balance in numbers, why a large stake changes your own payout in small pools, and how to treat related markets.
Risk notice: you trade with real money on PolySouq, and you can lose the full amount you stake in any market. No outcome is guaranteed, and the figures in the examples are illustrations, not forecasts. The platform is for users aged 18 and over and is subject to eligibility requirements and terms. For major financial decisions, seek independent financial advice.
There is no single correct percentage for everyone. What matters is that it is small enough for you to survive a losing streak.
When you stake a percentage of your current balance, the amount shrinks automatically after a loss, which slows the decline. A fixed dollar amount drains a small balance faster than people expect. The table shows a $200 balance after 10 consecutive losses, depending on the percentage staked each time:
These are arithmetic illustrations of the effect of size, not a forecast that you will lose that many times in a row. Losing streaks do happen, and a large percentage makes recovering from one far harder.
Because the payout is computed from the size of both pools, your stake enters the pool and changes how it is divided. Suppose a market holds $50 on Yes and $50 on No. If you put $5 on Yes, the pools become $55 against $50 and your payout if Yes wins is about $9.09 (a multiple of roughly 1.82). If you put $50 on Yes, the pools become
In short, in small markets a large stake can reduce your own payout multiple. Remember too that your estimated payout also moves as other people's money arrives, as explained in favourite versus underdog payouts.
If you place money in several markets about one match or one event, you really hold one position, repeated. If you misread the event, you lose them together. Treat related markets as a single position and give them, combined, the ceiling you would give one market.
On minimums: a deposit is at least
USDC is a crypto asset moved on a public blockchain. Once a transfer is broadcast it cannot be cancelled, and sending funds to the wrong network or address can lose them permanently, so use your deposit address exactly as shown and on the Polygon network only.
Risk notice: you can lose the full amount you stake in any market, and no profit is guaranteed. If you want to see what is currently open, browse the markets page and decide for yourself.
PolySouq is an event trading platform, a prediction markets (forecasting markets) trading platform, operated by a company registered in Cyprus. The platform claims no licence or approval from any regulatory body. Before depositing significant amounts, read the terms and check what your local law allows, and seek independent financial advice if the decision affects your savings. A wider framework is in risk and capital management.
There is no percentage that suits everyone. A practical rule is a small, fixed percentage of a balance set aside for trading that you can afford to lose completely.
A percentage of the current balance shrinks the stake automatically after a loss, which slows the decline compared with a fixed amount.
No. Raising the stake after a loss enlarges the next loss and does not change the probability of the outcome.
Yes in small pools, because your stake enters the pool and changes how it is divided. The bigger your stake relative to the pool, the lower your payout multiple.
No. In practice they are one position repeated, so give them a shared ceiling.
It needs a reliable estimate of the true probability, which most people do not have, and overestimating inflates the size. If you use it at all, use a very small fraction, and it guarantees no result.
The minimum deposit is
No. They limit the size of your risk only. You can lose the full amount in any market.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.