In prediction markets you can trade a contract on a clear question about the Tadawul TASI index — such as the points range it will close in on a given date, or which sector will deliver the highest return in a set quarter — settled against official Tadawul (Saudi Exchange) data.
No leverage, no riba, and the loss is capped at the contract cost. On PolySouq — the leading Arabic event and prediction-market platform — you try it with real money — and your capital is at risk.
Saudi stock market predictions: how do you trade them? In prediction markets you do not buy shares; you put your amount on the range in which you expect the index to close. For every trading day there is one market for the TASI index, with five closing ranges around the previous session's close, and only one range wins. Large stocks, such as Aramco and Al Rajhi, have daily markets that work the same way. The percentage shown for each range is its share of the pool's money, and it moves whenever new money comes in. A hypothetical example: the pool holds 10,000 dollars, 2,000 of it on the range you chose, so its share is 20 percent. And you put 100 dollars on it. If the index closes in your range and the amounts stay as they are, you get the hundred back in full, plus your share of the losing ranges' amounts after a 10 percent commission on them: 460 dollars in total. If it closes in another range, you lose the whole hundred. There is no selling before settlement on the official closing price, and the return shown before then is an estimate that changes. What moves the index? Oil prices, listed companies' earnings, interest rates and investor sentiment. Follow them, and compare your estimate with the percentage shown. Trading on PolySouq uses real money, and you can lose the amount you put in. The full guide is at polysouq.com.
The market poses settleable questions such as: "Which points range will the TASI close in at month-end?" or "Which sector will deliver the highest total return this quarter?" You pick the answer you find most likely, and the contract price reflects its probability. This sits alongside a family of Tadawul markets such as Aramco event predictions and IPO predictions.
TASI range probabilities respond to oil prices, listed-company earnings, monetary policy and regional investor sentiment. Tracking these helps you estimate the most likely range. See how global events move the odds to understand the mechanism, and for the Saudi market specifically the Saudi Arabia prediction-markets guide.
The market settles against official Tadawul data published on the set date — the index closing number or sector return as released by the official body. This removes ambiguity and makes the outcome verifiable by everyone, exactly as we explain in how PolySouq settles its markets transparently.
Sign up free on PolySouq, fund your balance with USDC on Polygon (from
Predicting the TASI index in prediction markets is a lawful, legitimate activity built on reading the economy and market rather than luck, with a capped loss and no leverage. It is a tool to turn your read of the Saudi market into a clear decision. Markets are volatile; trade only what you can afford to lose, and capital is at risk.
You trade a contract on a settleable question such as the index closing range on a given date or which sector will deliver the highest return in a set quarter. The contract price reflects your answer's probability and settles against official Tadawul data.
The index closing range at a point in time, the best-performing sector in a quarter, comparisons of TASI against Gulf indices, and questions tied to IPOs and major company results.
Oil prices, listed-company earnings, monetary policy and regional investor sentiment. Tracking these helps you estimate the most likely range.
Against official Tadawul (Saudi Exchange) data published on the set date — the index closing number or sector return as released by the official body, which makes the outcome verifiable.
No. You trade a contract on an index- or sector-related outcome and do not own shares. The loss is capped at the contract cost, with no leverage.
No — PolySouq trades in real money. You fund your balance in USDC over the Polygon network, then trade TASI predictions — and your capital is at risk. You can start small, but there is no free or practice balance.
Focusing on one stock instead of reading the whole index or sector, ignoring oil's effect and result seasonality, and putting your whole balance in a narrow range.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.