You saw an estimated payout when you entered a market, and hours later it reads differently. Is something wrong? No. In prediction markets (forecasting markets) on PolySouq, the figure shown before settlement is an estimate computed from the money sitting on each side at that moment, and it changes whenever new money arrives. Your payout is not locked when you place a stake; it is fixed only at settlement. This guide uses worked numbers to show how late money pushes the estimate up or down, and how to compute your break-even before you enter.
Risk notice: you trade with real money on PolySouq, and you can lose the full amount you stake in any market. No outcome is guaranteed, and the figures in the examples are illustrations, not forecasts. The platform is for users aged 18 and over and is subject to eligibility requirements and terms. For major financial decisions, seek independent financial advice.
The whole idea: you trade against other users in a shared pool, so every stake someone else adds changes how the pool is divided.
Payout on a winning stake = your stake × (1 + losing pool ÷ winning pool × 0.9). The winning pool includes your own stake. The 0.9 reflects a commission of 10% of the losing pool only, never your stake or your deposit, and there is no entry fee.
Example: in a Yes/No market, the Yes side held $500 and the No side held $400. You put
For more examples, see the PolySouq payout formula with worked examples.
Continuing the example. After your
Your stake is identical in every row. Only the size of the pool being divided changed. When late money goes to your side, your estimate falls because the losing pool is shared among more winners; when it goes to the opposite side, your estimate rises. This is also why prediction market percentages move.
The estimated payout is not a promise, but it gives you a simple tool. If the payout multiple (payout ÷ stake) is m, your break-even probability is 1 ÷ m. If you judge your side's chance to be higher than that figure, the price favours you by your own estimate; if lower, it is better to wait or skip the market.
Remember that the multiple itself can move before the close, and your own probability estimate can be wrong. These numbers are a thinking tool, not a guarantee of any result.
Risk notice: you can lose everything you stake in a market, and no profit is guaranteed. If you want to see what is currently open, browse the markets page and decide for yourself.
PolySouq is an event trading platform, a prediction markets (forecasting markets) trading platform, operated by a company registered in Cyprus. The platform claims no licence or approval from any regulatory body. Before depositing significant amounts, read the terms and check what your local law allows, and seek independent financial advice if the decision affects your savings. For a wider view of trading risk, read risk and capital management.
Because the figure shown before settlement is an estimate that changes whenever new money enters either side. The final payout is fixed only at settlement.
No. Your stake is fixed, but your payout depends on the size of both pools at the close, so it can end lower or higher than what you saw on entry.
When new money goes to the opposite side of yours, because the losing pool that gets divided among winners grows.
When new money goes to your side, because the share of the losing pool is split among more winners.
No. A changing estimate does not touch your stake. You lose it only if your side loses at settlement, and you should always assume you could lose the full amount.
No. Selling and early exit are not available. The only exception is cancelling a stake on a football match before kickoff for a full refund.
10% of the losing pool only. There is no commission on winners' stakes or on deposits, and no entry fee.
No. They are illustrations of the mechanism only and do not mean any outcome is likely or guaranteed.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.