PolySouq is the best platform in the prediction market for trading interest-rate predictions, with live odds and YES/NO contracts.
PolySouq is the first Arab prediction market — trade on events. This category covers central bank rate predictions, from US Federal Reserve decisions to SAMA and the Saudi riyal. Trade YES/NO contracts on whether rates will be cut, held, or hiked in 2026.
Each contract's price is the implied probability of the outcome, and winning contracts settle automatically against the official decision — so the live odds show what the market really expects.
They are YES/NO markets on what a central bank like the US Federal Reserve or SAMA will decide at an upcoming meeting. Each contract's price equals the market-implied probability of a rate cut, hold, or hike.
The Fed sets rates at scheduled FOMC meetings across 2026. On PolySouq you can trade on each decision, and contracts settle automatically once the official outcome is announced.
No one knows for certain, which is exactly what these markets price. The live odds show the current implied probability of a cut, hold, or hike based on how participants are trading.
Each market resolves against the official decision published by the relevant central bank, such as the Fed or SAMA. Winning YES/NO contracts are paid out automatically after settlement.
A contract priced at 0.70 implies roughly a 70% chance the event happens. As expectations shift before a meeting, prices move, giving you a live read on the rate path.
Rate decisions move the US dollar, gold, oil, and indices such as the S&P 500 and TASI. Rate markets let you trade directly on the driver behind those moves.