PolySouq is the first Arab prediction market — trade on events. This prediction markets glossary defines the terms you need to read any market with confidence, from Yes/No contracts to settlement.
Learn how a contract's price equals the implied probability of an outcome, what the odds are telling you, and how markets resolve against a pre-defined trusted source.
A prediction market is a platform for trading contracts on the outcomes of future events. Each contract's price reflects the implied probability that the event happens, turning the collective view of many traders into a single, measurable number.
A contract's price runs from 0 to 100 cents and represents the implied probability of that outcome. A price of 65 cents means the market estimates the odds of "Yes" at roughly 65 percent, and it moves in real time with every new trade.
A Yes/No contract settles on the event's outcome: it pays one dollar for the winning side and zero for the losing side. You buy "Yes" if you expect the event to happen and "No" if you expect it not to.
A market resolves when it closes and the final outcome is determined against a trusted source defined in advance in the event's resolution criteria. Winning contracts are then paid out automatically, with no manual claim required.
Liquidity is how easily contracts can be traded near the prevailing price; the spread is the gap between the best buy and sell prices; and volume is the total value traded on a market. Higher liquidity usually means a tighter spread and smoother trading.