Prediction Markets Glossary: Key Terms

Prediction Markets Glossary: Key Terms ExplainedPolySouq is the first Arab prediction market — trade on events. This prediction markets glossary defines the terms you need to read any market with confidence, from Yes/No contracts to settlement.Learn how a contract's price equals the implied probability of an outcome, what the odds are telling you, and how markets resolve against a pre-defined trusted source.

Learn core prediction market terms: Yes/No contracts, price as probability, resolution

Understand how a contract's price equals the implied probability of an event

See how markets settle automatically against a pre-defined trusted source

Get plain-English definitions for liquidity, spread, volume, P&L and positions

Reference terms used across PolySouq markets on stocks, crypto, sports and commodities

Common PolySouq prediction market terms at a glance

Term

What it means

Prediction Market

A platform for trading contracts on the outcomes of future events

Yes / No Contract

A contract that pays for the winning side and $0 for the losing side

Price as Probability

A price from 0 to 100 cents that equals the implied probability of the outcome

Implied Probability

The likelihood the market infers directly from a contract's current price

Resolution

Closing a market and paying out winners against a pre-defined trusted source

Resolution Criteria

The written rules that define when and how a market settles, shown before trading

Liquidity

How readily contracts can be traded near the prevailing price

Volume

The total value of trades on a market, an indicator of activity

Related markets

Frequently asked questionsWhat is a prediction market?A prediction market is a platform for trading contracts on the outcomes of future events. Each contract's price reflects the implied probability that the event happens, turning the collective view of many traders into a single, measurable number.How does the price show the odds of an event?A contract's price runs from 0 to 100 cents and represents the implied probability of that outcome. A price of 65 cents means the market estimates the odds of "Yes" at roughly 65 percent, and it moves in real time with every new trade.What is the difference between a Yes and a No contract?A Yes/No contract settles on the event's outcome: it pays one dollar for the winning side and zero for the losing side. You buy "Yes" if you expect the event to happen and "No" if you expect it not to.When and how does a market resolve on PolySouq?A market resolves when it closes and the final outcome is determined against a trusted source defined in advance in the event's resolution criteria. Winning contracts are then paid out automatically, with no manual claim required.What do liquidity, spread and volume mean here?Liquidity is how much money is in a market's pool: the more there is on both sides, the less a single new stake moves the displayed probability. Volume is the total value staked on a market. PolySouq has no order book, so there is no bid/ask spread.