Not every prediction market is built the same way. There are two main models in the world: the order book, where traders buy and sell contracts at prices they agree between themselves, and the parimutuel pool, where each trader puts money into the pool of the outcome they expect and the winners split the losing pool at settlement. PolySouq runs on the parimutuel pool model. This guide explains both models in plain language, compares them on pricing, fees, exits and risk, and shows what that means for you as a trader. This is real-money trading: you can lose the full amount you put in, and nothing guarantees a profit.
In an order book model, each outcome has a contract trading at a price between roughly $0 and
Well-known global platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi use this model. Its features: your entry price is locked at the moment of the trade, you can sell your contract to another trader before the end if a buyer exists, and there is a gap between the best buy price and the best sell price. Market depth depends on active traders, and sometimes on firms that keep posting buy and sell orders to provide liquidity.
In the parimutuel pool model that PolySouq uses, there are no fixed-price contracts and no order book. Each outcome has a pool, and anyone who expects it puts their USDC stake into that pool. When the market settles, the people who were right get their stakes back in full and split the losing pool in proportion to their stakes, after a 10% commission on the losing pool only. There is no entry fee, and the platform never takes the other side of any trade.
The probability you see on screen is simply each outcome's share of the money staked. If the YES pool holds $700 and the NO pool $300, YES shows at 70%. That probability moves with every new stake entering either pool, making it a direct measure of participants' opinion weighted by their money. For the formula with numbers, see how your payout is calculated, with worked examples.
The takeaway: both models answer the same question ("how likely is this outcome?") in different ways. The order book offers exit flexibility at the cost of more complexity; the parimutuel pool offers simplicity and transparent fees at the cost of committing to the trade until settlement.
Every model has limits, and being upfront about them is part of trading responsibly:
If you want to express a considered view with a set amount and wait for the result, the parimutuel model fits: few, clear rules, known fees, and a known maximum loss before you enter. If you want to trade daily price movements and enter and exit repeatedly, that style depends on an order book, and PolySouq does not offer it.
Either way, remember these are different platforms with different legal standing. Kalshi operates in the United States with approval from a US regulator, while PolySouq claims no licence or approval from any regulatory body. We state this for accuracy; it is not a verdict on any platform. For a wider comparison, see PolySouq vs Polymarket and Kalshi and how to compare prediction market platforms.
PolySouq is an Arabic-first prediction market trading platform that chose the parimutuel model: you stake on the outcome you expect, and the winners split the losing pool at settlement after a 10% commission on that pool only, with no entry fee and without the platform ever trading against you. If you are looking for an event trading platform whose rules can be explained in a minute, this model was built for that.
Risk warning: trading on PolySouq uses real money (USDC). You can lose the full amount you put into any market, and nothing guarantees a profit. Only trade what you can afford to lose. The service is for users aged 18+, and eligibility and terms apply. This content is educational; seek independent financial advice before any financial decision.
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In an order book, traders buy and sell contracts at prices they agree on, and the price is locked at purchase. In a parimutuel pool, each trader puts money into the pool of the outcome they expect, and winners split the losing pool at settlement.
PolySouq uses the parimutuel pool model. Winners get their stakes back in full and split the losing pool after a 10% commission on the losing pool only. There is no entry fee.
No. There is no order book, no limit orders and no liquidity provider. You pick an outcome and type an amount, and your stake goes into that outcome's pool.
It is each outcome's share of the total money staked in the market. If the YES pool holds $700 and the NO pool $300, YES shows at 70%.
No. The payout shown when you trade is an estimate; the final payout is set at settlement by the size of both pools at that moment.
No. The other side is everyone in the opposite pool. PolySouq earns a 10% commission on the losing pool, whichever outcome wins.
Your full stake is refunded at settlement with no commission, because there is no losing pool to share. The same applies if there are no winners or the platform cancels the market.
No. Kalshi operates in the United States with approval from a US regulator, while PolySouq claims no licence or approval from any regulatory body. Check the terms and eligibility in your country before trading.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.