Prediction markets are having a historic year in the United States. According to the Pew Research Center (May 2026), combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026. Yet both platforms are English-only, built around US and European events, and have never listed a market on TASI, the Dubai Financial Market, the Saudi Pro League or an OPEC meeting. This article compares PolySouq — the first Arabic prediction platform — with the two US giants by the numbers: who offers what, how a parimutuel pool differs from an order book with a worked dollar example, and what it means to build a platform for Arab readers on KSA time and Arab values.
Two years ago prediction markets were an academic curiosity. Today they are a multi-billion-dollar industry. The Pew Research Center report of May 27, 2026 finds that combined monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026, roughly a fivefold rise in seven months. In April 2026 alone, Polymarket International traded about $9 billion against
On market share, CoinDesk (April 9, 2026) estimates that Kalshi controls about 89% of the CFTC-regulated US prediction market. The table below puts the three platforms side by side:
The numbers above explain why so many people search for an "Arabic Polymarket". The two US platforms are excellent at what they were built for, but a reader in Riyadh, Dubai or Kuwait runs into five gaps that machine translation cannot close:
The deeper difference is not the language but the engine. Polymarket and Kalshi run an order book: buyers and sellers post orders in cents, a trade executes when two prices meet, and a winning contract pays a fixed
A market asks "Will TASI close above a given level at the end of the week?". You stake $60 on Yes. At close the Yes pool holds $3,000 and the No pool ,000, and the index closes above the level:
Had the index closed below the level, you would have lost the full $60 — the other side of the coin you must know before any forecast. There is also a third case that does not exist in an order book: if you were alone on Yes and nobody staked on No, there is no losing pool, and your $60 is refunded in full to your wallet with no commission. Note too that the payout is computed from the two pool sizes at settlement, not when you entered.
What sets the Arabic event trading platform apart is its catalogue. Multi-answer events (three or more outcomes) are the norm, and every category has its own live page:
Alongside the markets you will find friend challenges, the accuracy leaderboard and the Ideas community, explained below.
There is no card or bank-transfer funding on PolySouq; the only deposit and withdrawal rail is USDC on the Polygon network, after which your balance is shown in dollars. The minimum deposit is $5, the minimum withdrawal is $5, and there is no deposit fee.
The feature entirely absent from the two US platforms is an Arabic social layer. On PolySouq you invite friends with your personal invite link from Settings, then challenge them on the same events through the challenge page: who reads the match or the OPEC decision better? The weekly accuracy leaderboard ranks participants by how accurate their forecasts are, not by how much money they stake, so someone with $5 stands level with someone with $500 if they call it right.
The Ideas community is an Arabic feed of posts, replies, mentions and profiles for sharing analysis before events, plus comments under every event. A verified email is required to post, and links are blocked in comments to protect the community.
PolySouq is operated by a company registered in Cyprus, and its Terms are governed by the laws of the Republic of Cyprus. Markets settle automatically by consensus of public sources, uncertain cases go to a human review queue, and every settled market shows its outcome and source publicly. The leaderboard is public, and the settlement engine is documented in the transparency guide.
As Mike Brend, PolySouq's Chief Marketing Officer, puts it: "We did not build a translated copy of Polymarket. We built a platform that knows what TASI is and what the Saudi Pro League is, shows every event in Arabic on KSA time, and tells the user plainly that commission comes from the losing pool only and that their money comes back if nobody loses."
The question is fair, especially since Pew notes that the April 2026 volume of Kalshi and Polymarket (about $24 billion) was more than double the roughly
The essential difference nonetheless remains your own responsibility: you can lose the full amount you stake on a wrong forecast, and there is no way out before settlement. So stake only what you can afford to lose, read each event's rules, and review the responsible-trading tools.
Polymarket is an English-only order-book platform focused on US and European events; Pew reports it traded $9 billion internationally in April 2026. PolySouq is an Arabic-first parimutuel platform that lists GCC events such as TASI, the DFM, the Saudi Pro League and OPEC on KSA time, with a 10% commission taken from the losing pool only.
PolySouq is often described as the Arabic Polymarket because it is the first Arabic prediction platform, but it is not a translation of Polymarket. It differs in its engine (a parimutuel pool, not an order book), in its catalogue (GCC and Arab-world events) and in a cultural filter that excludes events which conflict with Arab values.
Kalshi is a US prediction market regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. CoinDesk (April 2026) estimates it controls about 89% of the regulated US market. Since July 2024 sports have made up 80% of its volume, crypto 7% and politics 4%. It is English-only and lists no GCC events.
PolySouq takes a 10% commission from the losing pool only at settlement, with no deposit fee, subscription or spread. If the losing pool is
In a parimutuel pool you do not need a counterparty to enter, but if you remain alone and nobody stakes on the losing answer there is no losing pool to share. Your stake is then refunded in full to your wallet at settlement with no commission — a case that has no equivalent on order-book platforms.
No. The only deposit and withdrawal rail is USDC on the Polygon network, with a $5 minimum deposit, a $5 minimum withdrawal and no deposit fee. After verifying your email you copy your personal address from Portfolio, send USDC from any wallet or exchange that supports Polygon, and your balance is shown in dollars.
No. PolySouq is buy-only: once you buy Yes or No, your stake stays in the pool until the event settles, then it is paid automatically if you were right or lost if you were wrong. Read each event's rules and settlement source before entering, and stake only what you can afford to lose.
No. Each percentage comes from the participants, not the platform, which never takes a side against you and earns 10% of the losing pool only. Every event has a published settlement source, every outcome is public, and the weekly leaderboard rewards accuracy, not stake size. It is a test of knowledge, and you can still lose your full stake.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.