In prediction markets, the percentage shown on each side (its share of the money staked) is the implied probability of the event: a side at 70% means about a 70% chance. Learning to read prices and probabilities is the key to sound decisions, because you back an outcome when its percentage is below your estimate of the true probability and hold it until settlement. This guide explains how to read price, evaluate event probabilities before buying, weigh risk and reward, and turn your reading into disciplined trades.
What does the percentage on a market mean? It is each side's portion of the money actually put in. It is the traders' view measured in money, not an expert forecast and not a promise. For example: six hundred and twenty dollars on "Yes" and three hundred and eighty on "No", so "Yes" shows at sixty-two percent and "No" at thirty-eight. And why does it move? Because new money comes in with every piece of news, such as a team line-up announcement or an official decision, so one percentage rises and the other falls. And the smaller side pays a higher multiple if it is right, because the winners are fewer and they split a bigger losing pool, after a commission of ten percent of that pool. In a market with six hundred dollars on "Yes" and four hundred on "No": the sixty-percent side has a multiple of one point six zero, and the forty-percent side two point three five. And what you see before settlement is an estimate that changes with all the money that comes in, and it is fixed only at settlement. And you cannot sell or exit before then. And in a market with little money in it, the percentage swings hard. So look at the size of the two pools, not at the percentage alone. Trading on PolySouq is with real money, and you may lose the amount you put in. The full guide is at polysouq.com.
Every outcome in a prediction market shows a percentage between 0 and 100 — its share of the money staked — and that percentage is the probability the market assigns to the event. This simple rule changes how you think: you're not buying a "number," you're buying a collective probability estimate that you can agree or disagree with based on your information.
The percentage also hints at your potential return, but it never locks it in. Stake on Yes while it shows 40% and, if the event happens, you get your stake back plus a share of the losing pool — an amount computed from the pool sizes at settlement, not from what the screen showed when you entered. A side with a lower percentage holds less of the money, so if it wins each winning dollar shares a bigger part of the losing pool: a higher potential return, but a lower chance of success. This probability-versus-reward trade-off is the heart of the decision and the core of evaluating risk and reward.
A market "Will inflation exceed a given level this month?" shows Yes at 30%. After reviewing recent economic data, you estimate the true probability at about 50%. Here Yes looks underpriced, so you stake on it. Positions are held until settlement, so you profit only if Yes actually wins — the percentage moving toward your estimate does not pay you anything on its own.
Yes — trading prediction markets on PolySouq is legal and legitimate, and halal, not haram: no riba or leverage, settled by an official source, based on information and probability not chance, and loss capped. These controls set it apart from maysir. For peace of mind, consult a trusted scholar. Your capital is at risk — trade only what you can afford to lose.
Read the percentage as the implied probability (25% a long shot, 50% a coin flip, 75% a strong lean), then form your own estimate from news, historical data and expert views, and compare the two. Buy the side that looks underpriced relative to your estimate, and only enter when the gap is wide enough to cover your margin of error.
Gather information, convert your view into a percentage probability, and compare it to the market price. If your probability is higher than the Yes price it may be an opportunity, and the reverse favors No. Factor in your uncertainty and only act when the mispricing is clear.
The percentage shows both sides of the trade-off: a long shot pays more because the losing pool is shared among fewer winners, but it is less likely to come in; a heavy favourite is safer with a smaller return. Either way your return is settled from the pool sizes at the end, and your maximum loss is the amount you staked.
A low price isn't automatically good value. A side at 10% is "expensive" if the true probability is only 5%, and "cheap" if it's 25%. Value is the gap between your probability estimate and the market price, not the low price by itself.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.