Up or Down markets are the simplest form of crypto prediction market: one question, will the price of Bitcoin or Ethereum at the end of a time window be higher or lower than at its start? On PolySouq these markets open on rolling windows: 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, daily, weekly, monthly and yearly, for Bitcoin and Ethereum only. This guide explains how a window opens and settles, where the price comes from, how payouts are calculated in the parimutuel pool, and why short windows need extra discipline. This is real-money trading: you can lose the full amount you put in, and nothing guarantees a profit.
Each market of this type is tied to a set time window with a start and an end. When the window opens, the coin's start price is recorded; when it closes, the end price is recorded. You pick one of two sides: Up if you expect the end price to be higher than or equal to the start price, or Down if you expect it to be lower.
The size of the move does not matter: a one-cent rise settles the market as Up just like a thousand-dollar rise. It is a question about direction only, not magnitude. When a window ends it settles, and the next window opens immediately with a fresh start price. You can browse open windows on the crypto page or go straight to 5-minute Up or Down.
Covered coins: these windows are currently available for Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) only. If you see other coins mentioned anywhere, there are no Up or Down windows open for them on the platform. For a comparison of the two, see Bitcoin vs Ethereum in prediction markets.
The platform uses a live price feed from Binance for the BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT pairs. When a window opens, the live price is recorded as the start price; when it ends, the live price is recorded as the end price, and the market settles under one rule:
Note the last detail: an unchanged price counts as Up. In very short windows that can occasionally happen, so it helps to know in advance. After settlement, the start price, end price and result appear in the window history, and payouts are added to winners' balances. For more on how the platform settles markets in general, see how PolySouq settles markets transparently.
Each window is an independent parimutuel pool market: those expecting Up put money into the Up pool, and those expecting Down into the Down pool. At settlement, winners get their stakes back in full and split the losing pool in proportion to their stakes after a 10% commission on the losing pool only. There is no entry fee.
The numbers are illustrative only. In reality the pools keep changing until the window ends, which is why the payout you see when you trade is an estimate. If nobody stakes on the other side, your full stake is refunded.
At the start of each window, before anyone has staked, the platform shows an indicative probability calculated from how far the price has moved since the window opened and how much time is left. If the price has risen slightly and little time remains, the indicative figure leans towards Up, and vice versa. This figure is for display only and represents no money in any pool.
As soon as the first real stake arrives, the displayed probability switches to the actual split of money between the two pools, which is what the settlement arithmetic uses. The difference matters: the indicative figure is a mathematical estimate of movement, while the pool probability is traders' opinion weighted by their money. For more on reading probabilities, see how to read prices and probabilities.
Short windows (5 and 15 minutes) are fast and tempting, which is exactly why they need more discipline:
Up or Down markets on PolySouq turn the question of Bitcoin and Ethereum direction into a simple parimutuel market: a start price and an end price from the live Binance feed, an unchanged price counts as Up, and a 10% commission on the losing pool only. Anyone looking for a crypto prediction market trading platform or event trading platform will find windows from 5 minutes to a year, but one rule holds in all of them: only stake what you can afford to lose.
Risk warning: trading on PolySouq uses real money (USDC). You can lose the full amount you put into any market, and nothing guarantees a profit. Only trade what you can afford to lose. The service is for users aged 18+, and eligibility and terms apply. This content is educational; seek independent financial advice before any financial decision.
To go deeper, read Bitcoin price predictions in prediction markets, then browse the crypto windows open now.
A market tied to a set time window: you predict whether Bitcoin's price at the end of the window will be higher than or equal to its start price (Up) or lower (Down). The size of the move does not matter, only the direction.
Rolling windows of 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour and 4 hours, plus daily, weekly, monthly and yearly windows.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) only at present. There are no Up or Down windows open for other coins on the platform.
From a live Binance price feed for BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT. The price is recorded when the window opens and when it ends, and both values appear in the window history after settlement.
The market settles Up. The rule is that an end price higher than or equal to the start price counts as Up.
The same as every market: 10% of the losing pool only, at settlement. There is no entry fee, and the commission is never taken from your own stake if you win.
No. Selling before settlement is not available on PolySouq, and your stake stays in the window until it closes. The platform's only exception is cancelling a football stake before kickoff.
There is no reliable way to do it. Short-window moves are largely random, so treat them as high-uncertainty decisions, set a budget per session, and only stake what you can afford to lose.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.