Your performance in prediction markets is not measured by how many trades you won, but by four metrics together: hit rate, return on your coins, pricing quality (is your estimate sharper than the price you paid?), and discipline.
A trader who is right 70% of the time can still lose if they buy expensive contracts; a trader at 45% can profit buying cheap ones. Here we show how to compute each metric and build a simple trading journal. You can practise all of it on PolySouq with 10,000 free coins on sign-up, with zero financial risk.
The most common beginner mistake is judging yourself by how often your forecast was right. The problem is that your entry price changes the maths entirely: a contract priced at 90 coins earns just 10 if you are right and loses 90 if you are wrong. Nine wins out of ten are wiped out by one loss.
Conversely, a contract at 20 coins earns 80 when right — so being right three times in ten is enough to come out ahead. The correct metric therefore combines hit rate with average price, which is exactly what reading prices and probabilities explains.
Compute it simply: contracts settled in your favour ÷ total settled contracts × 100. For example 18 hits out of 40 contracts = 45%. That number alone means neither "good" nor "bad" — it has to be compared to the average price you paid.
The practical rule: if your average buy price is 40 coins, you need a hit rate above 40% just to break even. Chart both numbers side by side every week and never read one in isolation.
This is the most important metric and the one most traders skip. The idea: before buying, write down your own estimate of the event probability (say 65%), then record the market price (say 50 coins = 50%). The gap is your assumed edge.
After settlement, review: when you said 60–70%, how often did the event actually happen? If it happened about 65% of the time, your estimates are well calibrated. If it happened only 40% of the time, you are overconfident and buying contracts above their true value. This is the accuracy idea we cover in are prediction markets accurate?.
Discipline is measurable too. For each trade record: did you have a written reason before entering? Did you stick to the position size you planned? Did you enter only because you saw the price moving?
Compute the share of "planned trades" out of all your trades. A trader who lifts that number from 50% to 90% usually improves before their hit rate does. This pairs with trading psychology in prediction markets.
At month end open your journal and ask only three questions. First: which category do I consistently profit in (commodities? equities? sport?) and which do I lose in? Second: did my biggest losses come from oversized positions or from repeating small bad trades? Third: what single rule, had I followed it last month, would have changed the outcome?
Change exactly one thing next month. Changing five things at once makes learning impossible because you will never know which one worked.
You need no financial risk at all to measure your performance. Sign up free on PolySouq and 10,000 PolySouq coins land in your account automatically, so you trade forecasts with zero risk to your own money and compare yourself with others on the leaderboard. Four months of a disciplined journal beats years of guessing.
With four metrics together: hit rate (how often you were right), return on your coins, pricing quality (whether your estimate beats the market price), and the share of planned trades. Any single metric gives an incomplete picture.
There is no absolute "good" rate — it depends on your average buy price. At an average of 30 coins, a 35% hit rate is profitable; at 80 coins, even 75% loses money.
Five or ten trades are statistical noise. Start judging after at least 40–50 settled contracts, and review monthly rather than daily.
That events actually occur at the rate you predicted: when you say 70%, the event happens roughly 70% of the time. Far less means you are overconfident; far more means you are too cautious and missing opportunities.
No. A simple six-column table is plenty. What matters is writing the reason before you enter, not after — memory rewrites reasons once the result is known.
Measurement tells you where you stand; capital management sets position size so you stay in the market long enough to learn. One is diagnosis, the other treatment.
Yes. Signing up to PolySouq is free and you automatically receive 10,000 PolySouq coins, so you trade and measure results with play-money coins and zero risk to your own funds.
It is a useful competitive signal but not sufficient alone, because it cannot separate a result built on sound decisions from one lucky trade. Read it alongside your personal journal.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.