Welcome to Iran politics on PolySouq — the first Arab prediction market, where you trade on events. This category brings together prediction markets on Iran's nuclear diplomacy, sanctions, leadership questions and the wider region, from the Strait of Hormuz to oil prices.
Each market uses YES/NO contracts, so a contract's price reads as the implied probability of an outcome. Watch the odds move as news breaks and see what traders expect for 2026 before any event settles against a pre-defined trusted source.
They are markets where each YES/NO contract tracks a real-world question about Iran — such as nuclear talks, sanctions or regional events. The contract price reflects the implied probability the market assigns to that outcome.
A contract's price equals the implied probability of the event. A price near the top of the range signals the market sees an outcome as likely, while a lower price signals it as less likely. Odds update continuously as new information arrives.
Each market settles after its event resolves, on the date defined in the market's rules. Winning contracts are paid out automatically once the result is confirmed against a pre-defined trusted source.
Iran-related developments often move related markets on PolySouq, including Brent crude, oil prices and gold. You can follow those linked markets to see how traders price the knock-on effects.
Markets span nuclear diplomacy and IAEA questions, sanctions, leadership and the Revolutionary Guard, the Strait of Hormuz, and links to Israel, the Houthis and US policy under Trump and Congress.
PolySouq is the first Arab prediction market, built for Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the wider Gulf, with an English mirror for international readers. Like other prediction markets, prices show implied probability, but the focus is the Arab region and its priorities.