If you are hunting for a site where you can trade on almost anything — a football match, the price of Bitcoin, where the TASI index closes, an interest-rate decision, an election result — the category you are actually looking for is called prediction markets, and the activity itself is event trading. PolySouq is the first Arabic prediction market, and it runs on a shared-pool model: everyone backing an outcome puts money into one pool, and whoever is right splits the losing pool pro-rata by their own stake, with their original stake returned in full on top. There is no house setting a price and standing on the other side of you, and the 10% commission comes out of the losing pool alone. The money is real — USDC on the Polygon network,
A whole family of searches circles one idea: "a site where you can trade on anything", "a platform for predictions on everything", "a place that puts sport, economics and politics under one roof". The wording changes from person to person, but the intent barely moves: someone holds a clear view about an upcoming public event and wants somewhere to convert that view into a position with real financial value, instead of leaving it as an argument in a majlis or a post on social media.
The precise name for this category is not "a betting site" — it is a prediction market, and the activity is event trading. That is not cosmetic wordplay; it is a difference in the financial plumbing itself. In the traditional bookmaker model, one counterparty sets your price and stands opposite your position, so its loss is your profit and its profit is your loss. In prediction markets, you are dealing with the other participants in the same market, and the platform never takes the opposite side of you at any moment.
When you look at what someone really wants behind the phrase "a site where I can predict anything", the same needs keep coming up:
PolySouq is the first Arabic prediction market, and it answers all five of those needs through the shared-pool model we will walk through with numbers in the sections below. If you want the theory first, we explain the mechanism from scratch in how prediction markets work, while the browse all markets page shows what is actually open right now.
One point should be clear from the first line: this is a real-money activity, and losing the entire amount you put into any position is completely possible. There are no guaranteed profits, no mechanism that protects your capital, and nothing on this page is personalised financial advice.
The biggest misunderstanding among people searching for a platform to predict everything is the assumption that all platforms work the same way. They do not. The structural difference comes down to a single question: who is the counterparty to your position? In the traditional model, the counterparty is the company itself. It sets the price, builds a margin into it in its own favour, and earns its income from the gap between the true probability and the price on offer. Its direct financial interest is that your estimate is wrong.
In the shared-pool model that PolySouq runs on, the counterparty is the rest of the participants. Everyone backing an outcome puts their money into that outcome's pool. At settlement, the pool from the wrong side is distributed among those who were right, pro-rata by each person's stake, and every correct participant gets their original stake back in full on top of their share of the profit. The platform holds no position and gains nothing from your estimate being right or wrong, because its 10% commission is taken from the losing pool only — meaning it earns nothing unless profits exist in the first place.
That difference has consequences you feel directly: there is no "price" set against you in advance, and the probability you see in front of you is simply a reflection of how participants' money is distributed across the outcomes at that moment. As new participants come in, the distribution shifts, and so does the potential payout. We break down how to read that number in reading prices and probabilities.
The practical takeaway: in event trading on a pool model, what you earn comes from the accuracy of your estimate relative to the rest of the market — not from beating an entity that monopolises the pricing of the event. That is exactly why the correct word here is "trading" and nothing else.
The payout formula at PolySouq is single, published, and identical from one market to the next: what you receive if you are right equals your original stake multiplied by (1 + the losing pool divided by the winning pool × 0.9). The 0.9 is what remains of the losing pool after the 10% commission is deducted. In short form: payout = stake × (1 + losing pool ÷ winning pool × 0.9).
The right way to read that formula is as two separate parts: your original stake, and your share of the wrong side's money. Your original stake comes back to you in full every time you are right — nothing whatsoever is deducted from it. The commission never touches winners' capital, and it never touches anyone's money when there are no profits to begin with. That is what makes the model arithmetically verifiable: the sum of all payouts distributed plus the commission always equals the sum of everything staked in the market — a solvency identity asserted for each market individually.
The table below shows how the payout per
Notice the core relationship: the less popular your position is among participants, the higher the potential payout — because the other side's pool is bigger and gets divided among fewer correct participants. The more your position is the majority view, the lower the payout. This is not a coincidence; it is the essence of pricing in prediction markets: a high payout is the price of standing in the minority, and it is also a signal that the market rates your outcome as unlikely. To turn that into a quantitative decision, read expected value in prediction markets and then how to calculate it step by step.
Critically: a higher potential payout does not mean profits are somehow "easier". The last row above showing a ninefold return simply means 90% of the money in that market thinks you are wrong. The market may be wrong — or you may be. The second outcome is a total loss of the amount staked.
The word "anything" in search results is misleading if you take it literally. More accurately: you can take a position on any future public event that can be decided from a published data source. In practice that is a very wide scope, but it is not unbounded, and the section on listing criteria explains why it cannot be.
The table below translates "what do you want to have a view on" into the right category and the typical shape of the question inside PolySouq. It is the quick reference that saves you wandering the site at random:
The practical value of that breadth is not entertainment, it is specialisation. Someone who follows the oil market closely can turn that attention into a position; someone who follows football can do the same — and both use the identical mechanism and formula, with no difference. Deep knowledge of one narrow area is worth far more here than hopping across every category.
The overwhelming majority of people searching for a site where they can predict anything arrive through the sports door. In the Sports section the focus is football, with clean result questions of the form "does this team win this specific match on this specific date". Those questions are decided from the official published result and need no human judgement once the final whistle goes. There is one extra feature specific to football: you can cancel your position before kick-off and get your stake back in full — an exception that does not apply in any other category.
The second most-demanded category is crypto. The nature of that market — round-the-clock trading with public, real-time price data — makes it one of the best-suited areas for framing event trading questions: a specific price level, a specific closing date and time, a published data source. People who follow the market daily often find their own probability estimate differs from how participants' money is distributed, and that difference is precisely where the opportunity lies — and where the loss lies if their estimate is the wrong one.
The third category is politics, historically the field on which prediction markets built their global reputation, because the collective market has on many occasions aggregated scattered information faster than opinion polling did. The condition here is strict: the outcome must be officially announced and verifiable from a public source — not an assessment of performance, intent, or a statement open to interpretation.
What you will not find in the sports section is worth stating plainly so you do not waste time looking: there are no correct-score markets, no corners, no cards, no goal-count markets, and no other sports such as tennis or basketball. The scope is deliberate and limited, and the reason ties directly to the resolvability criteria we set out shortly.
The most distinctive part of PolySouq for an Arabic-speaking user is coverage of regional financial markets. Someone who follows the TASI index daily, or knows the seasonality of the Dubai Financial Market and Abu Dhabi, holds local knowledge that a global participant simply does not have. That knowledge is your genuine edge in prediction markets, because the payout comes from being more accurate than the market average — not from outsmarting a pricing desk.
Coverage extends to Boursa Kuwait, the Qatar Stock Exchange and the Egyptian Exchange, and to IPOs, which represent a different kind of question altogether: questions about whether an event occurs (a listing, an announcement, a deal completing) rather than about a price level. Questions of that type resolve from a published official announcement, and are often cleaner to settle than price questions.
On the commodities side, the commodities section covers gold and metals, while energy questions are spread across oil and energy, oil prices and OPEC, alongside files tied to Saudi oil and Aramco. This category in particular rewards anyone who tracks producer meetings and inventory data, because the gap between a close follower's estimate and the general public's estimate is frequently large.
As for interest rates, these are the cleanest questions to frame anywhere: a pre-scheduled meeting, a decision drawn from a limited set of possibilities, and an official announcement at a known time. Directly connected to them are the currency and US equity markets, and we explain how economic data transmits into these markets in how economic data moves prediction markets. For readers who want to specialise regionally, there is Gulf stock exchanges in prediction markets and trading TASI index predictions.
The difference between a serious prediction market and a random website is discipline in how the question is framed. Any question listed on PolySouq must satisfy three conditions together, and failing any one of them makes the market impossible to settle fairly, however interesting the topic may be.
Condition one: objective resolution. The outcome must be a fact that any person can verify and arrive at the same answer on, with no room for judgement or opinion. "Did Team A win" is an objective question. "Did Team A play well" is not, because the answer changes with the assessor. Condition two: a resolution date. The question must have a pre-defined moment of resolution — a day, and usually an hour. A question without a date can never close, and a market that never closes means money locked up indefinitely. Condition three: one public data source. The source from which the answer is read must be known and published before the market opens, and it must be a single source rather than several that could contradict each other.
These criteria are not bureaucratic formality — they are what protects your money. A precisely framed market settles automatically with no dispute; a loosely framed one opens the door to argument after the event has happened, which is the worst thing that can occur when real money is on the line. We set out the settlement policy in more detail in how PolySouq settles markets transparently.
"Anything" has limits, and the limits are not arbitrary. There are three families of subject that can never be listed no matter how much demand exists, because they fail one or more of the three conditions in the previous section.
Family one: unverifiable outcomes. Any event with no public source that announces its result conclusively. The event may well happen, but if no party publishes the outcome in unambiguous form, there is no fair way to determine who was right and who was wrong. Family two: private matters. Anything concerning individuals in their personal capacity, or non-public information about companies and people. These are excluded entirely, for reasons that go beyond resolvability into respect for privacy. Family three: subjective outcomes. Any question whose answer is an opinion: the best, the most beautiful, the most successful, the most influential. These are questions to be debated, not resolved, and they have no place in a market distributing real money.
On top of that come deliberate scope limits: in sport, markets are confined to football match results — no correct score, no corners, no cards, no goal counts, and no other sports such as tennis or basketball. These are scope decisions we do not hide, and you are better off knowing them before you register rather than after. To see what is genuinely on offer at any moment, the browse markets page is the only reliable reference, and the glossary explains the terms you will encounter.
The path from curiosity to a first position is short, but it passes through one technical step that must be properly understood: the deposit. PolySouq runs on real money in USDC on the Polygon network exclusively. There are no local banking channels, no card deposits, and no bank wires. Opening the account itself is free and costs nothing.
The deposit mechanism relies on a personal deposit address that belongs to you: you get an address, you send USDC to it on the Polygon network, and the balance appears in your account. There is no wallet connection, no MetaMask, no WalletConnect, and no browser extension of any kind — the model is sending to an address, not connecting a wallet. The minimum deposit is 0. The most common mistake by far is sending on a network other than Polygon, which is why we dedicated a whole guide to it: the USDC on Polygon deposit and troubleshooting guide.
Once the balance lands, the next step is choosing a market and reading the question to the letter — not just its headline, but the resolution date and the data source — then setting your amount and the side you believe will occur. From that moment you are part of the pool, and your potential payout will keep shifting as new participants enter, right up until the market closes. The full walkthrough of a first trade is in opening an account and your first trade, and anyone who wants the probability groundwork first will find it in probability basics for prediction markets.
One point to absorb before your first position rather than after: you cannot exit your position mid-event. Once you take a side you stay in it until settlement, and the only exception is cancelling a football position before kick-off, in which case the stake is refunded in full. There is no early sell, no stop-loss, no leverage and no margin. These tools simply do not exist on the platform.
And finally: there is no demo version, no play money, no free coins and no signup bonus. The first dollar you put into a position is a real dollar exposed to a total loss.
You do not judge a financial platform by what happens in the normal case, but by what happens in the exceptional ones. So here, plainly, is what happens to your money in every case that can occur — because these are the questions many people discover the answers to too late on other platforms.
The rule tying all those rows together: refunds are always in full, and there is no such thing as a partial refund. The arithmetic rule that guarantees it is the solvency identity asserted per market: the sum of all payouts distributed plus the commission equals exactly the sum of everything staked in that market. There is no surplus the platform keeps and no shortfall it needs to cover.
On the withdrawal side, there is one channel: USDC only, to a Polygon address you provide. There is no bank withdrawal, no IBAN, no card and no local currency. It is better to confirm you have a valid withdrawal destination before you deposit rather than after, and the steps are set out in how to withdraw USDC step by step, while deposits, withdrawals and fees pulls the whole financial picture together in one place.
PolySouq has a genuine social layer: you can send friend requests and build a friends list, and each event page shows a panel of your friends' positions on that specific market. This is primarily an informational and social feature: seeing that three of your friends have taken the opposite side to you is a signal worth reconsidering your estimate over before you confirm it.
The term "duel" is the one most open to misunderstanding, so let us define it precisely: a duel is not a side bet between you and your friend, and it is not extra money. It is simply an interface pairing that compares your position with your friend's position when the two of you have taken opposite sides in the same market. Both of you remain inside the shared pool with everyone else, and each of your payouts is calculated by the same formula from the pool — never from the other person's pocket.
Invite and share links carry a referral code, and can point at a specific event so your friend lands directly on the market you are talking about. The details of that mechanism are in inviting friends and the referral program explained. Performance ranking among participants is calculated entirely separately from duels, and is explained in how the leaderboard works and weekly rankings.
The social layer is useful, but it carries an obvious risk: turning a financial decision into a matter of pride in front of your friends. The worst decision in event trading is doubling a position because you do not want to look wrong to someone you know. The numbers do not care who is watching.
This is the most important section on the page, and we put it plainly with no softening. Event trading on PolySouq happens with real money, and a total loss of the amount you put into any position is a likely and recurring outcome. Nothing guarantees a profit, no strategy eliminates the risk, and nothing on this page constitutes personalised financial advice or a recommendation to take any particular position.
That warning matters even more because of structural features of the platform that should be clear before your first deposit: you cannot exit a position mid-event (other than cancelling a football position before kick-off), the potential payout shifts as new participants enter before close, and the only financial channel in either direction is USDC on the Polygon network. The single practical rule we keep repeating: never put an amount into a position whose total loss would affect your life. The structured approach to this is in risk and capital management.
On the regulatory side we are equally direct: we do not decide on your behalf whether this activity is permitted or not permitted in your country of residence, we claim no local licence or approval from any regulatory body in any country, and we provide no local banking channel in any market. What we provide is a USDC-on-Polygon rail and nothing else. Verifying your own regulatory and tax position in your country — including any disclosure obligations or taxes on profits — is your responsibility alone, and consulting a qualified professional in your own jurisdiction is the sensible step.
What we can offer instead of claims we do not hold is transparency about the mechanism: one published payout formula, a commission taken from the losing pool only, a solvency identity asserted per market, and full — never partial — refunds in every cancellation case. Anyone who wants to assess those points critically will find the detail in is PolySouq trustworthy? and is it legal and safe?, and readers interested in the religious dimension have a separate piece in is prediction market trading halal?, which lays out the mechanism in detail without issuing a ruling on anyone's behalf.
The honest bottom line: yes, you will find here a place to take a position on almost anything across a wide range of resolvable public events. And no, this is not an easy road to money. It is a market that rewards precision and punishes haste, and your only edge in it is knowing one particular subject better than the average participant.
The category you are looking for is called prediction markets, and PolySouq is the first Arabic prediction market of that kind. You can take positions on events in football, crypto, politics, Gulf markets, commodities, oil, IPOs, interest rates, currencies and US equities. But "anything" is not literal: the question must concern a future public event that can be decided from a published data source on a specified date. Anything outside that is not listed.
No, and the difference is structural rather than linguistic. In the traditional betting model there is an entity that sets the price and stands opposite your position, so your loss is direct income for it. At PolySouq no entity takes the other side at all: everyone backing an outcome puts money into a pool, and whoever is right splits the wrong side's pool pro-rata by their stake, with their original stake returned in full. The platform's 10% commission comes from the losing pool only, meaning the platform earns nothing unless distributed profits exist, and earns zero when nobody loses.
Your profits come from the pool of participants who took the wrong outcome in the same market. The formula is published and fixed: payout = your stake × (1 + losing pool ÷ winning pool × 0.9). Example: if the winning side's pool is $4,000 and the losing side's pool is $6,000, every
Deposits are in USDC on the Polygon network only. You get a personal deposit address tied to your account, you send USDC to it on Polygon, and the balance appears. There is no wallet connection, no MetaMask and no WalletConnect — the model is sending to an address. The minimum deposit is
Withdrawals are in USDC only, to a Polygon address you provide. There is no bank withdrawal, no IBAN, no card, no local currency and no banking channel in any country. This is a structural constraint of the platform, not a temporary measure, so it is better to confirm you hold a valid withdrawal destination on the Polygon network before you deposit rather than afterwards.
In both cases your money comes back in full. If every participant was right and there is no losing pool, every stake is refunded in full and the commission is zero, because there are no profits to take it from. And if nobody backed the outcome that actually occurred, the market is voided, all stakes are returned in full and the commission is zero as well. More generally, any cancellation by the operator means a full refund — there is no partial refund under any circumstance whatsoever.
No. Once you take a side you stay in it until the market settles; there is no early sell and no partial close. The only exception is football: you can cancel your position before kick-off and get your stake back in full. There are also no stop-loss orders, no leverage and no margin — those tools simply do not exist on the platform.
No. There is no demo account, no play money, no free coins and no bonus on registration. Opening an account is free, but any position you take is with real money in USDC. That means a total loss of the amount staked is possible from your very first trade, and it is wise to make your first amount small enough to learn the mechanism without a painful financial impact.
Three families are never listed regardless of demand: outcomes that cannot be verified from an announced public source; private matters concerning individuals or unpublished internal information; and subjective questions whose answer is an opinion, such as "the best" or "the most successful". On top of that come deliberate scope limits in sport: there are no correct-score, corners, cards or goal-count markets, and no other sports such as tennis or basketball.
Nobody sets them administratively. The probability you see is a direct reflection of how participants' money is distributed across the outcomes at that moment, and it shifts whenever new participants enter or change their size. That is why the potential payout rises the more your position sits with the minority and falls the more you are with the majority. A high payout is not a gift — it is a signal that most of the money in the market thinks your estimate is wrong.
A duel is not a side bet and it is not extra money. It is an interface display comparing your position with your friend's position when the two of you have taken opposite sides in the same market. Both of you remain in the shared pool with everyone else, and each payout is calculated from the same formula and from the pool, not from the other person's pocket. Beating your friend does not increase or decrease your payout by any amount, and after settlement you receive the duel result with a status of awaiting result, won, or lost.
The commission is 10%, and it is taken from the losing side's pool only. That means your original stake comes back to you in full if you are right, and no commission is ever deducted from winners' capital. And if nobody loses, or the market is cancelled, or nobody backed the outcome that occurred, the commission is zero. The platform therefore earns income only from profits that are actually distributed, and holds no position in any market.
We do not decide that on your behalf and we claim no local licence or regulatory approval in any country. What the platform provides is a single financial rail: USDC on the Polygon network, with no local banking channel in any market. Verifying your regulatory and tax position in your country of residence — including any tax obligations on profits — is your responsibility alone, and consulting a qualified professional in your jurisdiction before you start is the sensible step.
The risk is total and explicit: the amount you put into a wrong position is lost in full. There are no guaranteed profits, no mechanism protecting your capital, and you cannot exit a position mid-event to reduce a loss (other than cancelling a football position before kick-off). The only sound practical rule is never to put an amount into a position whose total loss would affect your financial situation, and never to treat educational content on the site as personalised financial advice.
Disclaimer: Prediction markets are a legal and legitimate way to trade information about the outcomes of future events. However, trading carries risk and you may lose the full amount you trade — so only trade what you can afford to lose. This content is educational and is not financial or investment advice.